Loading Salons

« All Salons

  • This salon has passed.

Thinking about Not-knowing #7: Connecting Actions and Results

July 25, 2023 at 5:00 pm - 7:00 pm CEST

Start time where you are: Your time zone couldn't be detected


Join Vaughn Tan in building a better relationship with the not-knowing that surrounds us. Please note that this salon will run at a different time from previous salons (17h-19h CEST).

Making good strategy is hard when you don’t know how particular actions are connected to particular outcomes — in other words, when there is not-knowing about causation. At the same time, not-knowing about causation can also offer freedom to act under specific conditions. This can be a strategic and tactical advantage.

We’ll talk about four types of not-knowing in causation and how each type offers different constraints and opportunities for strategy and tactics:

  1. Inaccurate precision: Quantification obsession and legibility obsession means we assign precise probabilities (or probability ranges) to outcomes without strong basis.
  2. Unknown actions: When actions are unknown, we can’t know how likely they are to produce particular outcomes.
  3. Unknown outcomes: When outcomes are unknown, we cannot know when particular actions will produce them.
  4. Multiple causation: We are often only partly aware of the full set of causal connections between an action and a range of either simultaneously produced outcomes or sequentially revealed outcomes.

As a bonus, we may discuss how intentionally concealing well-understood causation can have strategic benefits. (Turns out this is done both in business and in military contexts.)

This is the 7th episode in an Interintellect series about not-knowing.

Pre-reading: A short post on “Causal not-knowing.”
Optional (but probably useful!): Check out previous articles on thinking more clearly about not-knowing.

The event will be recorded.


🗓 ii Calendar | 📋 Code of Conduct | 📚 Become a Member


The numbers below include tickets for this event already in your cart. Clicking "Get Tickets" will allow you to edit any existing attendee information as well as change ticket quantities.
Tickets are no longer available


July 25, 2023
5:00 pm - 7:00 pm CEST
Salon Categories:
Salon Tags:
, , ,




Vaughn Tan


Ticket price (US$)